An interesting few days

I haven't found myself spending much time playing radio for the past few days. 

I've got things working backwards at the moment - the IC706 has been sitting on the vertical receiving SSTV given its knack for better DX, though I've had it on 40m since yesterday and it's handled some VK stations better than last time I checked.

The G90 has been on the dipole - the US Air Force HFGCS on 11175kHz comes in a lot better on the dipole and I've found the audio quality to be a little better on it. Mostly.. I've been jumping around various obscure frequencies to see if I can hear things related to the drama in Ukraine and having a waterfall is helpful as I jump around. 

The HF GCS is mostly just an encrypted block of about 32 characters. There's been quite a bit of it going on as things have escalated. 

As someone who studied Cyber Security at postgraduate level - one of the more interesting subjects was Cyber warfare and Terrorism. Russia featured heavily in this. The subject dives into these concepts and how they are impacted by geopolitics. 

Russia vs <insert former Soviet bloc state here> has been an issue for a long time. Certainly Ukraine has had its fair share from Russia. 

One learns about its attacks on its critical infrastructure - such as its power stations, it's misinformation campaigns and the psychological tactics behind these kinds of "games" intended to turn citizens against its state, to weaken its resolve to fight and to sew the seeds of confusion and distrust. 

To anyone educated on the subject, what we're seeing now is of little surprise. It's been coming for a long time and it extends far beyond the borders of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Crimea.

You'll see it all over Facebook if you know where to look. A "laughing" like on pro-Ukraine posts. A barely intelligible but anti-Ukrainian response in a group. And that's just the stuff that is being run by "bots". 

The stuff that the humans in the Russian propaganda machine produce are far worse. Fake news reports. Doctored images. Russian soldiers trying to pickup Ukrainian women on dating sites to obtain local intelligence. Interception and modification of communications between those on the front lines and their families. The domestic propaganda Russia sells to its own people to justify its invasion.

Technology features heavily as part of Russia's strategy. It ramped up its cyber attacks on Ukraine hours before it invaded. The IT community has been dealing with an endless set of notifications of new malware - some of which is very, very sophisticated coming from China - a friend of Russia's no less, all at the same time. Some of this has been actively attacking Ukraine. Problematically, it's out in the wild on the Internet. 

China has been threatening a take over of Taiwan. What it's seen so far is that Russia has been able to invade Ukraine without any significant interference beyond that of Ukraine itself. The lack of action from the world - now with added fears of nuclear retaliation has paved the way for that to occur. If no one stopped Russia, who's going to stop China? 

As the fighting intensifies, the threat of nuclear responses increases and the fear level rises. The propaganda machine will ramp up. More fear, more uncertainty. An opportunity for another predatory action while everyone is distracted in another direction. 

There was an interesting stalemate left as a legacy from the Cold War - there was inaction out of fear of guaranteed destruction. 

Now we find ourselves in a similar situation; NATO nations don't want to be directly involved in the conflict otherwise it becomes a "world war", and it will certainly become nuclear. In Europe there aren't a lot of nations left to invade from those borders. Finland perhaps?

What happens when China decides to act? What stops them invading Australia? We can't really expect that the United States is going to put itself at risk of nuclear war with China over a large piece of dirt in the southern hemisphere with a massive, impossible to defend border. Small population, smaller military with no significant weapons compared to a global super power. 

I'm not sure Pine Gap is worth *that* much to them. In fact, I suspect at the first sign of invasion, Pine Gap would quickly become a pile of rubble and red dirt sitting inside a chain linked fence, with nothing left suggesting that it was American property beyond the signs. 

The war with Ukraine has proven that you quite simply cannot rely on your neighbours when the proverbial hits the fan with a nuclear armed aggressor. 

I'm not even entirely convinced that Russia will avoid going after a NATO nation in the near future; despite its best efforts, I'm not sure NATO would necessarily be willing to involve itself in a nuclear conflict to protect a small member state. 

It might, but then the consequences are potentially catastrophic for all of us. It might not, and that would devalue the whole alliance - likely putting all of Europe at risk of invasion from Russia. And you can be sure while that's going on, China will be making the most of that opportunity.  Either way, it's hard to see anything good on the horizon. 

I suspect, as I sit here on the otherside of the world, having never seen war up close, never having had to fight for my survival, country or freedom, that we're seeing the dawn of the Cold War 2.0.

Interesting times.